PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:NBA today: Injuries pile up, Mavericks are on a skid, Nuggets return to form

The PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank CenterNBA, now approaching its first month of the season, is in full swing.

And as the third week of the season wraps up, the NBA Cup is underway, with a loaded slate Friday. The Eastern Conference representative of last year’s in-season tournament final, the Indiana Pacers, take on the Miami Heat in a matchup of East B contenders.

Later Friday evening, fans will get an intriguing showdown between an established big in the Western Conference, Anthony Davis of the Los Angels Lakers, against phenom Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs.

And then on Sunday, the weekend wraps up with a fascinating showdown between a pair of Western Conference heavyweights, when the Dallas Mavericks head to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder.

Here are some takeaways from the fourth week of the NBA regular season.

Mavericks are on a skid. Is it time for concern?

No, it’s far too early, but there are opportunities for growth. The Mavericks (5-6) are sitting in the 12^th spot in the West, and their three losses this week came against the Warriors (9-2), Nuggets (7-3) and Suns (9-3).

The ball often stagnates on offense, especially late in games. During its three-game losing streak, Dallas has lost by three, two and one. The shot quality, characterized generously, has been audacious. A far better descriptor is impractical. Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić have launched perimeter heaves against tight defense and scoring has suffered; Dallas is tied for dead last in clutch winning percentage (.167), with the Mavericks going 1-5 in clutch games.

Every single Dallas player to have played clutch minutes has a negative in plus-minus, with the exception of Dwight Powell, who has an even 0.0. Inside the final two minutes of clutch games, Dallas is shooting 27.8% from the field, ranked 27^th — ahead of only the Trail Blazers, Bulls and Wizards.

Injuries to stars impacting early season strategies and outcomes

They’re an inevitability, but — with all teams having played at least 10 games — star players are missing time at a staggering pace. No team is feeling that more than the Pelicans, who lost Dejounte Murray (broken hand) after the season opener, and who are also now facing an extended absence of Zion Williamson (hamstring). The Pelicans have gone 2-9 in Murray’s absence.

That’s just the start.

Players with at least one All-Star appearance who are facing extended time away include: Kevin Durant (Suns; left calf), Ja Morant (Grizzlies; hip), Kawhi Leonard (Clippers; right knee), Tyrese Maxey (76ers; hamstring), Paolo Banchero (Magic; oblique), Jimmy Butler (Heat; ankle), Scottie Barnes (Raptors; orbital fracture), Khris Middleton (Bucks; ankle) and Kristaps Porzingis (Celtics; ankle).

USA TODAY Sports research revealed that, through each team’s first 10 games this season, star players combined to miss a total of 83 games. Compared to the same period last season, that figure is up 23.9% (67) from last season and 6.4% (78) from the year previous, but down 15.7% (96) from 2021-22. For this purpose, star players are ones who reached All-NBA nominations or All-Star nods in the last three seasons.

After early-season stumbles Nuggets return to championship form

And, as always, it’s ball movement and assists that have Denver thriving on offense during its current five-game winning streak. The Nuggets (7-3) lost three of their first five games of the season. During that stretch, the team averaged 27.8 assists per game.

Since then, during this five-game winning streak, the Nuggets have averaged 33.6 assists per game. It’s no surprise, then, that Denver’s scoring has improved, too; the Nuggets averaged 115.6 points per game through their first five and 126.2 since then.

Also, as always, it has been Nikola Jokić’s excellence, his vision and efficiency, that has Denver looking like an elite contender. Jokić has six triple-doubles through 10 games, leads the NBA in assists (11.7 per game) and is second in in player impact estimate (21.4), a comprehensive measurement of value and contribution, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo (21.5).

Franz Wagner (and his brother) are keeping the Magic afloat without Banchero

After ascending star Paolo Banchero suffered a torn right oblique, the Magic lost the first four games they played without him. Since then, Orlando (7-6) has won four in a row and is hanging around the top third of the Eastern Conference.

The difference this week has been forward Franz Wagner, who’s averaging 27.8 points per game during Orlando’s four-game winning streak. His older brother, Moritz Wagner, has also been essential. Coming off the bench, Mo Wagner is averaging 15.3 points per game over Orlando’s last four.

Granted, Orlando’s winning streak has come against the Pelicans (3-9). Wizards (2-8), Hornets (4-7) and Pacers (5-6), so the Magic will need to show they can sustain this level against better competition.

A duo off the bench is elevating the Rockets

Houston is 8-4 so far this season. The Rockets are crazy athletic and they’re deep. They’ve done it, primarily, on defense, which is no surprise, given that it’s the identity coach Ime Udoka relies upon. The Rockets rank third in defensive rating (107.1), and they’re continuing to race back to force opponents to plod through half-court sets; Houston leads the NBA in transition defense, allowing a league-low 10.3 fast break points. The Rockets also led the league in that category last season, though they’ve improved from 11.5 fast break points allowed per game.

Udoka started with Houston last season. The year before he took over, the Rockets ranked dead last in the NBA in fast break defense (17.5).

Athleticism is just one part. Udoka has a deep rotation, and has relied on forward Amen Thompson and Tari Eason to inject defensive energy and spot scoring in the second unit.